Future predictions for the performance and distribution of an Australian soapberry bug

<p dir="ltr">Climate change is predicted to facilitate the spread of invasive alien species in multiple environments to the detriment of native species; however, some native species display resilience through adaptation. The Australian soapberry bug <i>Leptocoris tagalicus </i>underwent adaptation following its colonisation of the invasive plant species, <i>Cardiospermum grandiflorum </i>as a novel food source. However, climate change impacts on this eco-evolutionary dynamic warrant investigation. To fill this research gap, I performed an experiment exposing <i>L. tagalicus </i>eggs to increasing temperatures and fed hatchlings either native <i>Alectryon tomentosus </i>or invasive <i>C. grandiflorum </i>seeds. I generated future climate models for <i>A. tomentosus, C. grandiflorum</i>, and <i>L. tagalicus </i>to predict changes in climatic suitability for all three species, and to investigate plant host availability to the insect. An invasive diet and higher temperatures resulted in larger body measurements and faster development in <i>L. tagalicus</i>. Modelling predictions suggest suitable conditions for <i>A. tomentosus </i>will persist more under future climates than expected, contrary to our findings for <i>C. grandiflorum </i>– however, both host plants shared large overlapping areas with <i>L. tagalicus. Leptocoris tagalicus </i>shows adaptability and phenotypic plasticity under abiotic and biotic change, with a potential future preference for a novel host due to availability and fitness benefits.</p>