IR theory, structuralism realism & Chinese nationalism: understanding the 2022 Taiwan Strait crisis

Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and a def facto state. Its contested official status has led to numerous crises threatening international stability and security. In 2022, the latest crisis erupted due to the US Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Since then, no study has been published that has taken up this crisis as a case study to determine whether it is the influence of China’s nationalism or international factors that impacts China’s foreign policy decisions. Therefore, this thesis aims to investigate the influence of these domestic and international factors in the 2022 Taiwan Strait Crisis.

At the time of the 1995–96 crisis, China was economically and militarily weak, and the primacy of US forces deterred China. In the current context, China stands as the second-largest military and economic power after the United States. Since 2012, China has replaced its docile foreign policy approach with a more assertive one, seeking recognition as an influential power with respected national goals. Hence, the US deterrence may not work as previously. In order to investigate what influences China’s aggressive foreign policy choices, the thesis employs a qualitative mode of inquiry, synthesising data from primary and secondary resources and peer-reviewed literature.

The thesis identifies a limited role of nationalism in China’s foreign policy decisions, given that the decision-making power is concentrated in the highest ranks of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the leadership applies a more rational approach to decision-making than anticipated in authoritarian regimes. China's foreign policy decisions are notably influenced by an escalating security dilemma stemming from the anarchic nature of the international environment. The ongoing great power competition with the United States and the rise in the multipolarity further intensifies this dilemma. While also acknowledging the presence of ideational policies in China, the thesis contends that factors such as power, anarchy and security dominate over identity. Therefore, the structural hurdles in the international environment largely explain China’s assertive actions. However, the thesis does not entirely align with any particular theoretical framework and highlights that the overlapping effect of domestic and international factors on state’s foreign policy decisions is an important arena recommended for future study.