Modelling environment and poverty for sustainable development

This thesis focusses on modelling environment and poverty and exploring policy implications for sustainable development in rural China. This study has four interconnected aims as follows: 1. To propose an integrated framework of environment and poverty nexus; 2. To explore empirical evidence for environment and poverty nexus from different dimensions; 3. To propose a combined method (TM-SDM) for building sustainable development model; and 4. To explore the possible solutions for pursuing sustainable development in rural China.

To address the (1) first aim, we have collected 4,335 English language publications and introduced topic modelling into the EEP field. Combined with bibliometric analysis and visualisation approaches, we proposed an integrated ecologyenvironment- poverty (EEP) model; and constructed the theory model and the subsystems of the sustainable development model. To address the (2) second aim, we conducted the empirical studies from the following two aspects: spatial coupling of environment and poverty: a framework for sustainable agriculture; and coupling analysis of ecosystem services (ES) and poverty reduction. To address the (3) third aim, we proposed the TM-SDM framework for the sustainable development model based on the following study: a combined method of topic modelling and system dynamics modelling to build a systematic poverty reduction model in China. To address the (4) fourth aim, we put forward a new exploration for synthesising environmental conservation and poverty alleviation through the analysis of Solar PV based electricity generation systems and poverty alleviation. Specifically, it includes three studies as follows: A topic modelling-based exploration of renewable energy and poverty alleviation nexus: towards integrated polices; How should government and users share the investment costs and benefits of a solar PV power generation project in China; and Multifaceted projects (concern both environment and poverty in rural China) of IFAD in China and their poverty reduction effects.

The results show that: (1) The greatest concerns in the EEP field are biodiversity and environmental services. Six main clusters related to poverty are ecosystem, health risk, economic and environmental development, natural resources and food production, children, women and inequality, and urban poverty. (2) the problems of environment degradation and rural poverty in the TGRR have been deteriorated, and their dynamic interactive relationship is turning into a vicious cycle; and the coupling degrees differ observably in different areas of the TGRR, and counties with adverse features have been spatially agglomerated over time; there is a long-term co-integration between ecosystem services value (ESV) and multidimensional poverty-reduction index, and their coupling degree is on the rise; ESV plays an important role in improving social security and mitigating poverty. (3) China's Poverty-stricken Reservoir Regions are highly likely to achieve the poverty reduction goal by 2020 by taking the coordinated strategy and pay more attention on disaster management; education and training policy has the greatest impact on the improvement of poverty reduction and yield of crops, and the balanced development scenario benefit both the poverty reduction and environmental protection concurrently. And (4) renewable energy, rural development and electricity access are the most important research concerns of the renewable energy and poverty alleviation nexus. Renewable energy is essential for the rural development and poverty alleviation. The new practice explorations and projects combining renewable energy and poverty reduction are suggested to realise environmental conservation and sustainable development. Under China's central government subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kWh, the best strategy for the local government to encourage the public to install solar PV facilities is to provide a one-off compensation equal to 30% of the initial investment. Multifaceted projects of IFAD in China have had significantly positive impacts on improving the living standards of the poor. Sustainable poverty reduction and sustainable rural development require lasting attention and efforts.