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Potential for electric vehicle adoption in Australia
thesisposted on 2022-03-29, 02:34 authored by Sohaib Rafique
Transport is expected to become electrified in coming decades, bringing new challenges and opportunities for commuters and electricity distributors. This thesis presents analysis of Household Travel Survey (2014/15) and Journey to Work (2011) census datasets from the New South Wales (NSW) with the aim of : (i) investigating whether electric vehicles (EVs) could meet the daily commuting needs, and (ii) quantifying the potential impact of EVs on the electricity distribution grid as a function of location and time. It was found that 87% of commuter vehicle trips could be provided using affordable EVs and that the resulting electricity demand would increase by more than 10% in only 9 out of 35 local government areas (LGAs) in NSW, Australia. We also quantified the potential spatiotemporal electric energy available for vehicle-to-grid services. It was found that greenhouse gas emissions across NSW would reduce by 26% CO2 (eq) even if all EVs were recharged from non-renewable coal-fired power plants, due to greater efficiency of EVs. The results demonstrated the potential for wide-scale adoption of EVs in Australia. Lastly, to facilitate analysis and prediction of key variables, the travel data was modelled using regression trees (RTs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs).