Residential aged care in Australia: from length of stay to residents profile simulation

A prolonged lifespan brings complex aged care problems. In Australia, residential aged care (RAC) accounts for a significant sector of the aged care industry. Looming challenges such as financial sustainability and changes in residents’ profiles become critical. Using longitudinal dataset, we design a statistical simulation model to project the profile of individuals entering RAC, the number of admissions, and the associated government spending on RAC. An ensumbled model including XGBoost and Hamilton–Perry method is used to obtain a precise prediction of residents’ length of stay which allows we draw a more reliable future landscape in RACs. Further, the analysis is conducted on a state level, where we discover more regional differences. The analysis focused on both the demographic features like age, marital status and sex and the medical features like dementia status and aspects represented by the aged care funding instrument (ACFI) of existing and prospective residents. We conclude that the number of residential beds in most states in Australia is sufficient. The number of admissions has been decreasing in most states since 2016, while the number of residents kept increasing until 2025. In addition, regarding the sustainability of the aged care system, although the number of residents is expected to decrease, we do not expect that there will be a significant drop in government spending on the sector.