The Ugly Green Duckling, Economics of the Renewable Transition: Assessing energy trade vulnerabilities from 2012 - 2020 using aggregating political and economic trade risks in an adapted GeoPolRisk method for Australia

Economies around the world are changing their sources of energy to reduce their global emissions from fossil fuels. This change necessitates a new supply of resources to substitute their energy consumption; most of these are produced or acquired through the international system of trade. Australia has entered “The Paris Climate Agreement '', its legislation “Climate Change Act 2022” sets forth Australia's aim of a 43% reduction against a 2005 baseline by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050. We find using a modified Geopolitical risk method that international supply side vulnerabilities are acute for midstream photovoltaic (solar) products as compared to crude oil, semi-refined oil, and high purity silicon to the Australian market. The Geopolitical risk method has historically accounted for risks within a nation, our modifications expand the method to include trade risks. With such supply vulnerabilities present for the transition to solar we recommend increases in domestic production and the use of preferential trade agreements to reduce the overall vulnerability of energy commodities in the Australian economy to allow for a secure and smooth transition.